EUR/AUD longs initiated

EUR/AUD core longs have been initiated at 1.3384 on the drop as expected to support at 1.3375.  I will add to 1.3292 Fib retracement support as this level should be tested prior to any uptrend developing.  A massive Head and Shoulders pattern is developing on the 8hrs and this is concerning for the uptrend.   The eurozone currency is at a crossroads collectively around the globe and a large trend is materializing one way or another.  The larger technical picture should become quite clear over the coming weeks and months.    Build small core longs at current levels but be prepared to add to 1.3292 with stops below 1.3200.

AUD/USD Long-term top in place

The Aussie has risen as expected and is in the last stages of forming a long-term top from which much lower levels will be seen.   Build a core short at current levels while above 1.o100 with a target below .9200.  I have taken on shorts at 1.0135 with a stop above 1.0200 which could indeed be seen before more selling pressure emerges later this week.  Current levels are likely the highest the currency will see for the next five years and getting short in line with this reversal is recommended.

EUR/AUD Short-term longs initiated, reversal looms

The EUR/AUD has bounced off of hourly support at 1.3648 and I have taken on a small long position on the hourly perfect harami cross low, aggregated at 1.3665 targeting 1.3775 on the day likely completing the head and shoulders formation on the hourlies. Shorts will be initiated at this level targeting a minimum of 1.3425.

 

**update:    trade closed on a discretionary basis as the rally failed to materialize much strength.  On-the-day shorts initiated for the drop to 1.3375.

GBP/USD shorts in play

Cable has recovered strongly on the day against the dollar and the current ST top at 1.6058 will likely be challenged this week.  The key will be the head and shoulders formation on the daily charts and whether it will complete at all.  Now is a good opportunity for shorting the pair at current levels and into the US NFP later this week. A fall back to cloud support around 1.5600 is likely before any rally attempt and a failure there would complete our topping formation.

 

GBP/JPY recovering

GBP/JPY has recovered sharply off the lows from this morning and still holding stale shorts from last week.  Trading is choppy and non-directional, stay short at higher levels but be prepared to close out the position in a hurry on signs of strength by mid-week.

AUD Sunday gap

Worth waiting up for, I have profited 80points overnight on a nice Sunday gap lower on the Aussie, buying at trendline support at .9870 and closing after the fill at .9950 this morning.

Occurring twice a month on decent size the average Sunday gap is a great way to profit before the week begins. Key levels are sometimes tested during this time and the best entry levels often occur before the rest of the world has risen on Monday morning.

 

 

EUR likely topping

The EUR has retraced 50% of the move down from 1.4282 to 1.2865 and is the most likely area for a top and is the completion of C leg.  There is a convergence of trend lines and the former Nov22nd top as well.  Look to sell small amounts on the day or hold off until a clearer picture emerges the following week.  It is unlikely the EUR goes much of anywhere until next week’s jobs report.

 

 

GBP/JPY fall underway

The GBP has fallen today from it’s congestion zone as expected and we are 200 points in the money on a nice 8 hr gap lower.  A small retracement back to at least the 50 day mva is likely tomorrow and advise holding off until then to determine if we will add to shorts.  Much will be determined by the price action tomorrow as a filling of the 8hr gap would create a double candlestick tweezers low on the daily’s and potentially negate the downtrend, however this is less likely to happen

EUR long closed +425 points profit

The Euro long has been closed  aggregated at 1.3675, up +425 points on the week.  Current view is flat as a pullback from these levels could see 1.3300 area again.  No clear bias – stand aside.

EUR nearing L1 Target, take partial profit on 1.3700

The EUR is currently seeing some retracement on profit taking, but the rally should resume sometime after this.  This retracement could prove quite deep and reach as far as 1.3300  before the uptrend resumes.   Advise I have taken some profit on prices above 1.3600 and am waiting for clearer direction.    Either hold the rest for 1.4100 or exit around 1.3800 as a large retracement looms.